26 entries
Bibliography
Nothing on this site cites a source that is not listed here. The DOIs and addresses have been checked to confirm that they lead to the work being cited — and not to a similarly titled one.
[01]
ATAG — Aviation: Benefits Beyond Borders / Facts & figuresAir Transport Action Group · 20242023 data: 35.3 m scheduled flights, 29,039 commercial aircraft, 1,138 airlines, 4,072 airports, 348.75 bn l of fuel, 882 Mt CO2, 11.6 m direct jobs.https://atag.org/facts-figures
[02]
ICAO Annual Report 2024 — The World of Air Transport in 2024International Civil Aviation Organization · 202537.4 m commercial departures and 4.7 bn passengers in 2024.https://www.icao.int/about-icao/AnnualReport2024/world-air-transport-2024
[03]
U. Schumann — On conditions for contrail formation from aircraft exhaustsUlrich Schumann · 1996Meteorologische Zeitschrift 5, 4–23. The Schmidt–Appleman criterion in the form used here: mixing-line slope G, water vapour emission index ≈ 1.23–1.25 kg/kg, and the analytical approximation for the threshold temperature.https://www.osti.gov/etdeweb/biblio/233640
[04]
H. Appleman — The Formation of Exhaust Condensation Trails by Jet AircraftHerbert Appleman · 1953Bull. Amer. Meteor. Soc. 34, 14–20. The contrail forecasting method used by the USAF from the 1950s — evidence that contrail physics was described and applied operationally half a century before the chemtrail theory appeared.https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/bams/34/1/1520-0477-34_1_14.xml
[05]
Aircraft Contrails Factsheet (EPA-430-F-00-005)EPA, FAA, NASA, NOAA · 2000A joint document of four US agencies: contrails are mostly ice crystals; it describes how they form and persist.https://www.faa.gov/sites/faa.gov/files/regulations_policies/policy_guidance/envir_policy/contrails.pdf
[06]
Shearer, West, Caldeira, Davis — Quantifying expert consensus against the existence of a secret, large-scale atmospheric spraying programChristine Shearer, Mick West, Ken Caldeira, Steven J. Davis · 2016Environ. Res. Lett. 11, 084011. 76 of 77 independent atmospheric chemists and geochemists found no evidence of a secret spraying programme; the claimed evidence was explicable by known physics and chemistry.doi:10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011 · https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/11/8/084011
[07]
D. R. Grimes — On the Viability of Conspiratorial BeliefsDavid Robert Grimes · 2016PLOS ONE 11(1): e0147905. The secrecy decay model L(t)=1−(1−p)^(N·t); p calibrated on PRISM (>1.42·10⁻⁵), Tuskegee (>7.50·10⁻⁶) and the FBI forensics scandal (>2.11·10⁻⁵); the most conservative value is p = 4.09·10⁻⁶.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0147905 · https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0147905
[08]
Correction: On the Viability of Conspiratorial BeliefsDavid Robert Grimes · 2016PLOS ONE 11(3): e0151003. The corrected equations give an even lower probability of a secret holding than the original version.doi:10.1371/journal.pone.0151003 · https://journals.plos.org/plosone/article?id=10.1371/journal.pone.0151003
[09]
M R. X. Dentith — On the problems generating the viability of a mathematical model dealing with conspiratorial beliefsMatthew R. X. Dentith · 2016A critique of the Grimes model: the choice of calibration cases and the assumption of a uniform p. Cited here deliberately — the model is an order-of-magnitude estimate, not an oracle.https://www.mrxdentith.com/2016/02/01/on-the-problems-generating-the-viability-of-a-mathematical-model-dealing-with-conspiratorial-beliefs/
[10]
Smith & Wagner — Stratospheric aerosol injection tactics and costs in the first 15 years of deploymentWake Smith, Gernot Wagner · 2018Environ. Res. Lett. 13, 124001. A real programme needs ~20 km; modified business jets cannot climb above ~16 km and existing airliners and transports do not reach such altitudes at all. A new aircraft (SAIL) would be required: ~25 t payload, ~50 t empty weight, 4 engines; year 15 = 95 aircraft, 60,109 flights, 1.5 Mt S per year, ~USD 2.25 bn/yr.doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d · https://iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1088/1748-9326/aae98d
[11]
Toohey, Jia, Khanal, Tegtmeier — Stratospheric residence time and the lifetime of volcanic stratospheric aerosolsMatthew Toohey, Yue Jia, Sujan Khanal, Susann Tegtmeier · 2025Atmos. Chem. Phys. 25, 3821–3839. The lifetime of sulphate aerosol after Pinatubo was ≈ 22 months in the stratosphere; in the troposphere aerosol lifetimes are on the order of days to weeks.doi:10.5194/acp-25-3821-2025 · https://acp.copernicus.org/articles/25/3821/2025/
[12]
Lee i in. — The contribution of global aviation to anthropogenic climate forcing for 2000 to 2018D. S. Lee, D. W. Fahey, A. Skowron i 18 współautorów · 2021Atmospheric Environment 244, 117834. Contrail cirrus: ERF 57.4 [17; 98] mW/m² — 67 % more than aviation CO2 ERF (34.3 mW/m²); all aviation = 3.5 % of anthropogenic ERF in 2018.doi:10.1016/j.atmosenv.2020.117834 · https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S1352231020305689
[13]
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — AluminumU.S. Geological Survey · 2025World primary aluminium production: 70 m t (2023), 72 m t (2024, est.).https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-aluminum.pdf
[14]
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — BariteU.S. Geological Survey · 2025World barite mine production: 8.08 m t (2023), 8.20 m t (2024, est.).https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-barite.pdf
[15]
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025 — StrontiumU.S. Geological Survey · 2025World strontium mine production (Sr content): about 510,000 t in 2024.https://pubs.usgs.gov/periodicals/mcs2025/mcs2025-strontium.pdf
[16]
Our World in Data / CEDS — Global sulphur dioxide emissionsCommunity Emissions Data System (McDuffie i in.), Our World in Data · 2024All anthropogenic SO2 emissions worldwide in 2022: 73.47 m t.https://ourworldindata.org/grapher/so-emissions-by-world-region-in-million-tonnes
[17]
Rudnick & Gao — Composition of the Continental CrustRoberta L. Rudnick, Shan Gao · 2014Treatise on Geochemistry (2nd ed.), vol. 4. Continental crust: O 46.4 %, Si 28.15 %, Al 8.23 %, Fe 5.63 %, Ca 4.15 % by weight. Aluminium is the third most abundant crustal element — finding it in soil is the rule, not an anomaly.https://scispace.com/pdf/composition-of-the-continental-crust-2hxz49vsod.pdf
[18]
Boeing Pilot and Technician Outlook 2025–2044The Boeing Company · 2025Forecast demand: 660,000 new pilots and 710,000 technicians over 20 years — an order of magnitude confirming the staffing ratios used here.https://www.boeing.com/commercial/market/pilot-technician-outlook
[19]
IAGOS-CARIBIC — laboratorium atmosferyczne na pokładzie samolotów rejsowychIAGOS Research Infrastructure · 2024A measurement container in the hold of a Lufthansa Airbus in scheduled service; about 20 instruments, ~100 trace gases plus aerosol and cloud parameters, measured at cruise altitude.https://www.caribic-atmospheric.com/
[20]
Properties and Processing of Aviation Exhaust Aerosol at Cruise Altitude Observed from the IAGOS-CARIBIC Flying LaboratoryIAGOS-CARIBIC / Environ. Sci. Technol. · 2024More than 1,100 encounters with other aircraft's plumes recorded and analysed in 2018–2020 — a direct measurement of what the engines actually emit.https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC11044579/
[21]
UN DESA Population Division — Household Size and Composition 2022United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs · 2022A database built on 1,059 sources from 196 countries. Median household size: 2.4 in Europe and North America, 4.6–4.8 in South and West Asia; the world average is around 3.5.https://population.un.org/Household/
[22]
IATA — prognoza rentowności branży lotniczej na 2024International Air Transport Association · 2024Revenue about USD 996 bn, net profit about USD 30.5 bn, net margin about 3.1 %. An industry on that margin cannot hide a few billion dollars of cost a year.https://www.iata.org/en/pressroom/2024-releases/2024-06-03-01/
[23]
Specyfikacja paliwa Jet A-1 (ASTM D1655 / DEF STAN 91-091)ASTM International / UK MoD · 2024The standard lists the permitted additives (antioxidants, metal deactivators, corrosion inhibitors, static dissipators, anti-icing additives) and the contaminant limits. Density 0.775–0.840 kg/l; net heat of combustion ≥ 42.8 MJ/kg. Metals are a limited contaminant, not an ingredient.https://www.astm.org/Standards/D1655.htm
[24]
Stechiometria spalania nafty lotniczejICAO / IPCC · 2019Burning 1 kg of jet kerosene yields about 3.16 kg of CO2 and about 1.24 kg of H2O. Independently confirmed here: CO2 computed from fuel use matches the ATAG figure to within 0.5 %.https://www.icao.int/environmental-protection/CarbonOffset/Pages/default.aspx
[25]
Międzynarodowa Atmosfera Wzorcowa (ISA, ISO 2533)ISO · 1975The 250 hPa level is ≈ 10.4 km; tropopause temperature about −56.5 °C. Typical airline cruise: 9–12 km.https://www.iso.org/standard/7472.html
[26]
Masy molowe i udziały masoweIUPAC · 2021Al in Al2O3 = 52.9 % by weight; Ba in BaSO4 = 58.8 % by weight.https://iupac.org/what-we-do/periodic-table-of-elements/
What is deliberately absent
We do not cite blogs, videos or photo collections — from either side of the argument. Nor do we cite the “laboratory reports” that circulate without a sampling methodology, because without a description of the background and a blank they cannot be assessed. That is not an accusation of bad faith, only of missing information needed for verification.
If there is a peer-reviewed paper that contradicts any of these calculations, there is a place for it on this list.